Falling Behind: Canada’s Future in a Low Carbon World

Peak fossil fuel demand is imminent, and today’s growth rates for deployment of renewable technologies are already approaching the pace of change required by the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 (NZE) scenario. In 2023, renewable investment reached $1.1 trillion, beating fossil fuel investment for the first time. In 2022, for the first time in its history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted in its World Energy Outlook that fossil fuel demand will peak in every region in all future scenarios. According to the Rocky Mountain Institute, 58% of nations in the world have already reached peak demand for fossil fuels. Combustion vehicle sales peaked globally in 2017 and are now in decline, and 50 countries are now planning to ban ICE cars, up from just 5 countries in 2015. S-shaped learning curves for renewable technology, coupled with accelerating global climate policy ambition and the decline of fossil fuel demand growth in China, will make the low-carbon transition all but inevitable.